WFT4Life

Tag: Ron Rivera

  • Comparing the Draft Classes of Adam Peters and Ron Rivera

    Adam Peters is the hot GM this year, everyone is talking about him, he’s the best GM on the planet. The 49ers are one of the best teams in football right now, so it’s a bit difficult to argue otherwise, but we’re going to look at the numbers anyway.

    CategoryPeters GradePeters RegradeRivera GradeRivera Regrade
    2020 (PFF) B+BBA-
    2021 (PFF)BC+A-B
    2022 (PFF) (NFL)BBC+C
    GPAB (3.1)B- (2.7)B (3.0)B- (2.9)
    Draft Analysis Rivera and Peters Initial Grades and Regrades

    Looking at the data it appears Peters had the better initial grades and Rivera had the better regrades. Depending upon how you look at it, either grade could be more relevant. I’m actually of the camp that the initial grade, biases excluded, is the more important grade, that said the initial grades won’t recognize unconventional wisdom.

  • How the Criticism of Ron Rivera Has Distanced Itself from Reality

    Ron Rivera is under fire, some of it is deserved, the critiques of how his team started the year are justified. I don’t hold him accountable for the team’s performance after the Sweat and Young trades, but he’s certainly responsible for the poor performance to that point. That said when you have a bad season as a coach the narratives around you get dumb, frustrated fans fed and led by media outlets looking for clicks and attention arrive at some profoundly crazy conclusions.

    Narrative: Ron is a terrible coach because he didn’t know what he had in Sam Howell. The logic is that he’s a terrible talent evaluator for not recognizing the genius of Sam Howell sooner. This situation is eerily similar to Bill Belichick having Tom Brady on the bench until a Drew Bledsoe injury, Anthony Lynn having Justin Herbert sitting behind Tyrod Taylor until he punctured his lung, Dick Vermeil having Kurt Warner on the bench until Trent Green was injured, Kyle Shanahan having Brock Purdy on the bench until Jimmy Garoppolo got injured. The only difference being that all of those quarterbacks had extended streaks of success, while Howell appears to have fizzled out some, so the criticism appears to be even more misguided.

    Narrative: Ron is a terrible evaluator of talent, probably one of the worst to ever pick players. Here’s a draft analysis done by PFF two years after the 2020 draft and the Commanders got an A-. Here’s a 2021 draft class regrade from PFF, their initial grade was an A-, their grade a year later was a B, not spectacular but hardly terrible. Here’s a regrade of the 2022 NFL draft after the 2022 season and the Commanders were ranked 25th, not good, but certainly not the worst draft and there’s reason to believe Jahan Dotson will flourish with a more consistent quarterback improving this grade. Finally the 2023 draft class, which it’s really too early to grade, particularly with the Commanders in full tank mode, was graded average by PFF (B), ESPN (B), and the NFL Network (C). So no, Ron isn’t the worst talent evaluator in league history, in fact he’s not even close.

  • Don’t Fire Ron, Fire Ron’s Haters Out of a Cannon.

    Look, I’m not 100% in love with Ron either, but the delusion is running strong with Commanders fans. We’ve seen this before fire Bill Callahan, fire Jay Gruden, fire Mike Shanahan, fire Jim Zorn, fire Joe Gibbs, fire, fire, fire…

    You see what we need to do to win is fire our coach, that will fix it. We’re going to hire a GM, this mythical savant, who knows football, they’re going to come here, hire a great head coach, another mythical savant, and then life will be good again. Especially when this mythical savant hires a defensive coordinator, another mythical savant, and we will dominate the competition. Don’t forget an analytics guy, because everyone knows that nobody is better at coaching football than nerds. I mean Ron’s been here for four seasons now, and he hasn’t fixed anything, well except for having the highest winning percentage of any football coach since Joe Gibbs 16 years ago.

    I can see the job listing now. Wanted awesome head coach to come to a franchise that fires coaches every four years, must love analytics and nerds, and be willing to put up with ownership scorching you on Twitter after every loss.

    I’ve got a different idea, maybe we could admit that although we’re not happy with their current performance, Ron knows how to coach football, Jack Del Rio certainly knows how to coach defenses, and EB has been one of the premier offensive coordinators in the league. We have a good coaching staff, certainly more proven than any staff that’s going to be available this off-season and let’s give them some space to keep working.