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Tag: Coaching Opportunities

  • 2024 NFL Head Coach Searches: Coaching is About Opportunity Not Media Hype (Part 2)

    We went back ten years to look at NFL coach hirings, how candidates were portrayed by the media during their candidacy, and how that turned out. We disqualified any coaches with less than 20 games from our list because we didn’t feel like one season was enough of a sample size to see what a coach could actually do, we will call that the Nathaniel Hackett rule. (This is part two of the series, part one is here)

    4. Marc Trestman (2013), Chicago Bears, Win Percentage: 40%: He lasted two seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    An offensive-minded coach who has had success with quarterbacks, Trestman’s appeal to both the Browns and Bears is obvious. Cleveland and Chicago’s offenses ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per game — and both offenses also ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

    5. Bruce Arians (2013), Arizona Cardinals, Win Percentage: 62%: He lasted eight seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring. Ironically Arians was thirteenth on this list of best available head coaches behind a whole bunch of guys he outperformed.

    Why: The turnaround in Indianapolis will land Bruce Arians some head coaching interviews—if he wants them. Arians is smart enough to wait for a good opportunity, and it’s also possible some NFL owners will write off his success because of the talent of Andrew Luck.

    6. Doug Marrone (2013), Buffalo Bills, Win Percentage: 47% with the Bills, 39% overall: He lasted two seasons in Buffalo, got hired in Jacksonville in 2016 where he lasted five years with a 35% win rate. Marrone didn’t get much media hype and appeared to be hired out of nowhere. We found the following on the Buffalo Bills website, but no real mentions in the press.

    “I think it is the ultimate compliment to Doug’s coaching abilities that his name is being mentioned in NFL circles,” Gross said. “None of us should be surprised by the attention given his experience and success.”

    Those were the six head coaches hired in 2013, Chip Kelly and Mike McCoy were the media darlings of the bunch, and the only one who worked out well was Arians who was an afterthought.

  • 2024 NFL Head Coach Searches: Coaching is About Opportunity Not Media Hype (Part 1)

    The Commanders need to hire Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, because he’s the hot new coach, and he’s really smart and good at analytics. Now to be fair, reading up on Ben Johnson, he actually does sound like he might truly be smarter than the average bear. However that’s not a guarantee he will be a successful coach, otherwise we would have more head coaches like Mike McDaniels who went to Yale.

    We went back ten years to look at NFL coach hirings, how candidates were portrayed by the media during their candidacy, and how that turned out. We disqualified any coaches with less than 20 games from our list because we didn’t feel like one season was enough of a sample size to see what a coach could actually do, we will call that the Nathaniel Hackett rule.

    1. Gus Bradley (2013), Jacksonville Jaguars, Win Percentage: 22%: He lasted three seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    Why: Just look at the way the Seattle defense has been handling teams this year and it’s clear that Gus Bradley’s name will be a hot one. He’s a master at the hybrid front and at getting the right personnel on the field to match up against the offense. His X’s and O’s skill set will be heavily desired.

    2. Mike McCoy (2013), San Diego Chargers, Win Percentage: 42%: He lasted four seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    McCoy was a finalist for the Dolphins head coaching vacancy last season. Hearing the recent, ringing endorsement from Manning, McCoy is primed to take over an NFL franchise. Having Manning to work with will allow McCoy to be selective, as what’s his incentive to leave the Broncos for a team who doesn’t have an established quarterback?

    3. Chip Kelly 2013, Philadelphia Eagles, Win Percentage: 55% with the Eagles, 44% overall: He lasted three seasons with the Eagles and then was hired by the 49ers where he lasted one year. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    Oregon head coach Chip Kelly tops the Christmas wish list of fans in Cleveland, Philadelphia, Kansas City and maybe even Dallas. The Pac-12 genius looks poised to make a jump to the NFL, and he’ll have no shortage of suitors if and when he’s ready.

    Part two of this post can be found here.