WFT4Life

Category: WFT4LIFE

  • The Drake Maye Problem

    I’m a numbers guy, not that I think stats rule the world, but it’s no coincidence that the top quarterbacks in NFL drafts have usually put up big numbers in college. While I don’t think success in college means a quarterback will be successful in the pros, I do think a lack of success in college is a really bad sign. Which brings us to the Commanders Drake Maye problem. Let’s look at the numbers and see what they say.

    The chart below shows all three of the top ranked quarterbacks in the draft. In his final year Maye’s completion percentage dropped to 63.3%, average yards per attempt dropped, TDs/INTs dropped dramatically, and his yards per game dropped, albeit negligibly. Meanwhile Daniels performance went through the roof, and Caleb Williams, for all the talk of his regression, improved both his completion percentage and passer rating. Williams did regress in yards per game and TDs/INTs, but still finished ahead of Maye for the year in both categories.

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    All that said having worse numbers than two of the most prolific college players of all time isn’t the end of the world. However that’s not the end of the bad news for Maye statistically. When comparing Maye to the first quarterback taken in drafts between 2016 and 2020, years we chose because we’ve had three seasons or more to see how things have played out, things get even worse. Of all of these quarterbacks in their final college year, Maye has the worst completion percentage of the group, the lowest passer rating, the worst TD/INT ratio, the second worst yards per game (behind Trubisky), and is tied for last in yards per attempt with, you guessed it, Trubisky. Additionally he’s played less college football than everyone on this list except for Kyler Murray and Trubisky, something that appears to hurt young college quarterbacks.

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    Wait there’s more, when you look at his last season the numbers get even more concerning. His last two games he completed less than 60% of his passes, in four of his last seven games his completion percentage was in the 50% range, his TD/INTs was 1.0 in his last three games, and looking at the numbers, red flags are everywhere.

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    So what does all this mean? Well it’s hard to look at all of the data behind the Maye draft pick and justify a second pick. In fact it’s hard to justify a top ten pick, but the NFL loves it quarterbacks. I’ve heard rumblings lately that Maye might fall, looking at the data I wonder if that wasn’t the case all along. One last point on the Commanders is the new owner is big on analytics, looking at the data, that doesn’t scream Maye to me.

  • We Will Gladly Take Lamar

    Apparently one of the writers at ravenswire.usatoday.com, Larry Brown Jr., is ready to be honest about Lamar, detailed in this article. If the article could be dumber, I really don’t know how, but if the guys from Baltimore want to get rid of Lamar, we will gladly take him.

  • 2024 NFL Head Coach Searches: Coaching is About Opportunity Not Media Hype (Part 1)

    The Commanders need to hire Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, because he’s the hot new coach, and he’s really smart and good at analytics. Now to be fair, reading up on Ben Johnson, he actually does sound like he might truly be smarter than the average bear. However that’s not a guarantee he will be a successful coach, otherwise we would have more head coaches like Mike McDaniels who went to Yale.

    We went back ten years to look at NFL coach hirings, how candidates were portrayed by the media during their candidacy, and how that turned out. We disqualified any coaches with less than 20 games from our list because we didn’t feel like one season was enough of a sample size to see what a coach could actually do, we will call that the Nathaniel Hackett rule.

    1. Gus Bradley (2013), Jacksonville Jaguars, Win Percentage: 22%: He lasted three seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    Why: Just look at the way the Seattle defense has been handling teams this year and it’s clear that Gus Bradley’s name will be a hot one. He’s a master at the hybrid front and at getting the right personnel on the field to match up against the offense. His X’s and O’s skill set will be heavily desired.

    2. Mike McCoy (2013), San Diego Chargers, Win Percentage: 42%: He lasted four seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    McCoy was a finalist for the Dolphins head coaching vacancy last season. Hearing the recent, ringing endorsement from Manning, McCoy is primed to take over an NFL franchise. Having Manning to work with will allow McCoy to be selective, as what’s his incentive to leave the Broncos for a team who doesn’t have an established quarterback?

    3. Chip Kelly 2013, Philadelphia Eagles, Win Percentage: 55% with the Eagles, 44% overall: He lasted three seasons with the Eagles and then was hired by the 49ers where he lasted one year. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    Oregon head coach Chip Kelly tops the Christmas wish list of fans in Cleveland, Philadelphia, Kansas City and maybe even Dallas. The Pac-12 genius looks poised to make a jump to the NFL, and he’ll have no shortage of suitors if and when he’s ready.

    Part two of this post can be found here.

  • Checking in on the Chase Young Trade

    Checking in on how the Chase Young trade is going for the 49ers.

    49ers defense ranks No. 1 in points allowed

    “Since acquiring defensive end Chase Young, the team boasts a perfect 3-0 record. The defense managed 10 sacks out of 62 total pressures during their losing streak. That statistic has escalated to 22 sacks out of 79 total pressures since, reflecting a substantial jump in sack percentage (16.1% vs. 27.8%).“

    The 49ers sure do appear to have found a gem in Young. I wish the Commanders could acquire some talent like that, maybe one day.

  • Revisiting the Chase Young and Montez Sweat Trades After the Dallas Loss

    The Washington Commanders were 3-5 four weeks ago when they decided to become sellers, defying even the most aggressive of predictions they traded Chase Young to the 49ers for a conditional 2024 third round pick. As PFF noted at the time:

    “Young is playing the best football of his professional career in 2023. His 79.7 pass-rush grade is a career-high, as is his 18.2% pass-rush win percentage. It’s hard to believe a conditional third-round pick is all the Commanders could get for Young, who is on pace for a career year.“

    Much to everyone’s surprise they had already moved Montez Sweat to the Chicago Bears for a second round pick. As the Athletic noted

    “Sweat was leading the Commanders and is tied for eighth in the NFL with 6 1/2 sacks this season. Sweat, a first-round pick out of Mississippi State in 2019, is one of seven players with at least five sacks in each of the last five seasons: Montez Sweat, Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Khalil Mack, Maxx Crosby, Brian Burns, and Chris Jones”

    The Commanders defense struggled mightily early in the year, but one area where they hadn’t struggled was in sacks, they were ranked sixth at the time of the trades and since then they have fallen off a cliff. Now we’re not football geniuses here at WFT4LIFE, but we tend to think that trading away the part of your defense that’s working isn’t the best way to improve.

    This past week the Cowboys put a 45-10 beating on the Commanders, the win was entirely predictable. While fans and the local media have been quick to cast blame on everyone and everything, they have been noticeably quiet about discussing the trades and the impact the front office had by making them. It’s tough to start selling assets, a nice way of saying you quit on the season, and then chastise players for a lack of results. If the front office didn’t want to be embarrassed on national TV then maybe they should have been more judicious with their decision making.

    Ironically a Cowboys reporter has talked about our team’s trade impact more than any of the local media, the trades that shall not be discussed. It’s really really bizarre.

    Ed Werder has this to say:

    “It seems worth noting that Washington was a poor defensive team made worse by the organization trading starting defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the deadline.”