I’m a numbers guy, not that I think stats rule the world, but it’s no coincidence that the top quarterbacks in NFL drafts have usually put up big numbers in college. While I don’t think success in college means a quarterback will be successful in the pros, I do think a lack of success in college is a really bad sign. Which brings us to the Commanders Drake Maye problem. Let’s look at the numbers and see what they say.
The chart below shows all three of the top ranked quarterbacks in the draft. In his final year Maye’s completion percentage dropped to 63.3%, average yards per attempt dropped, TDs/INTs dropped dramatically, and his yards per game dropped, albeit negligibly. Meanwhile Daniels performance went through the roof, and Caleb Williams, for all the talk of his regression, improved both his completion percentage and passer rating. Williams did regress in yards per game and TDs/INTs, but still finished ahead of Maye for the year in both categories.
All that said having worse numbers than two of the most prolific college players of all time isn’t the end of the world. However that’s not the end of the bad news for Maye statistically. When comparing Maye to the first quarterback taken in drafts between 2016 and 2020, years we chose because we’ve had three seasons or more to see how things have played out, things get even worse. Of all of these quarterbacks in their final college year, Maye has the worst completion percentage of the group, the lowest passer rating, the worst TD/INT ratio, the second worst yards per game (behind Trubisky), and is tied for last in yards per attempt with, you guessed it, Trubisky. Additionally he’s played less college football than everyone on this list except for Kyler Murray and Trubisky, something that appears to hurt young college quarterbacks.
Wait there’s more, when you look at his last season the numbers get even more concerning. His last two games he completed less than 60% of his passes, in four of his last seven games his completion percentage was in the 50% range, his TD/INTs was 1.0 in his last three games, and looking at the numbers, red flags are everywhere.
So what does all this mean? Well it’s hard to look at all of the data behind the Maye draft pick and justify a second pick. In fact it’s hard to justify a top ten pick, but the NFL loves it quarterbacks. I’ve heard rumblings lately that Maye might fall, looking at the data I wonder if that wasn’t the case all along. One last point on the Commanders is the new owner is big on analytics, looking at the data, that doesn’t scream Maye to me.