WFT4Life

Author: wft4life

  • The Drake Maye Problem

    I’m a numbers guy, not that I think stats rule the world, but it’s no coincidence that the top quarterbacks in NFL drafts have usually put up big numbers in college. While I don’t think success in college means a quarterback will be successful in the pros, I do think a lack of success in college is a really bad sign. Which brings us to the Commanders Drake Maye problem. Let’s look at the numbers and see what they say.

    The chart below shows all three of the top ranked quarterbacks in the draft. In his final year Maye’s completion percentage dropped to 63.3%, average yards per attempt dropped, TDs/INTs dropped dramatically, and his yards per game dropped, albeit negligibly. Meanwhile Daniels performance went through the roof, and Caleb Williams, for all the talk of his regression, improved both his completion percentage and passer rating. Williams did regress in yards per game and TDs/INTs, but still finished ahead of Maye for the year in both categories.

    Image

    All that said having worse numbers than two of the most prolific college players of all time isn’t the end of the world. However that’s not the end of the bad news for Maye statistically. When comparing Maye to the first quarterback taken in drafts between 2016 and 2020, years we chose because we’ve had three seasons or more to see how things have played out, things get even worse. Of all of these quarterbacks in their final college year, Maye has the worst completion percentage of the group, the lowest passer rating, the worst TD/INT ratio, the second worst yards per game (behind Trubisky), and is tied for last in yards per attempt with, you guessed it, Trubisky. Additionally he’s played less college football than everyone on this list except for Kyler Murray and Trubisky, something that appears to hurt young college quarterbacks.

    Image 1

    Wait there’s more, when you look at his last season the numbers get even more concerning. His last two games he completed less than 60% of his passes, in four of his last seven games his completion percentage was in the 50% range, his TD/INTs was 1.0 in his last three games, and looking at the numbers, red flags are everywhere.

    Image 3

    So what does all this mean? Well it’s hard to look at all of the data behind the Maye draft pick and justify a second pick. In fact it’s hard to justify a top ten pick, but the NFL loves it quarterbacks. I’ve heard rumblings lately that Maye might fall, looking at the data I wonder if that wasn’t the case all along. One last point on the Commanders is the new owner is big on analytics, looking at the data, that doesn’t scream Maye to me.

  • We Will Gladly Take Lamar

    Apparently one of the writers at ravenswire.usatoday.com, Larry Brown Jr., is ready to be honest about Lamar, detailed in this article. If the article could be dumber, I really don’t know how, but if the guys from Baltimore want to get rid of Lamar, we will gladly take him.

  • The R Word and Why the Sports Media Needs More Diversity

    One of the reasons we started blogging on the Commanders is because we heard a lot of nonsense when reading articles about the Commanders. We honestly feel like a lot of this nonsense wouldn’t exist if there were a more diverse group of writers, editors, sports personalities, etc… working at some of these media outlets.

    The USA Today’s Bryan Manning recently wrote this disaster of an article, where he was discussing Jonathan Allen’s comments on the team name, Allen stated they will always be the R word to him. This was disappointing in many ways, but what’s even more comical about the situation is that Manning claimed that using the derogatory slur would endear Allen to Washington fans. While there is a part of the fanbase that longs for the old name, and maybe even a majority, there’s certainly a large constituency that’s glad to be done with it. Manning writes “That should further endear Allen to Washington’s fans.”

    Well Bryan, WFT4Life has some bad news for you, some of us fans hate the old name and are glad it’s gone, we’re not cool with racial slurs. Some of us didn’t always hate the old name, but as we were educated on its meaning and history, we evolved. We threw out our old gear and paraphernalia, we chose to not participate in something that was hurtful and or disparaging of others. We’re not alone in that evolution, you can look up former players, Washington all time greats like John Riggins, Darrell Green, etc… and read their well thought out opinions on the name change etc…

    Manning wasn’t alone though, some of the local sports radio personalities, Cody Shook and Grant Paulsen from 106.7 the fan, chimed in quoting Allen, with Paulsen calling Allen’s love for the slur the “Highlight of the night.” That sounds like an awful night, but if racial slurs are the highlight of your evenings, we don’t want to know where you spend your free time.

  • 2024 NFL Head Coach Searches: Coaching is About Opportunity Not Media Hype (Part 2)

    We went back ten years to look at NFL coach hirings, how candidates were portrayed by the media during their candidacy, and how that turned out. We disqualified any coaches with less than 20 games from our list because we didn’t feel like one season was enough of a sample size to see what a coach could actually do, we will call that the Nathaniel Hackett rule. (This is part two of the series, part one is here)

    4. Marc Trestman (2013), Chicago Bears, Win Percentage: 40%: He lasted two seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    An offensive-minded coach who has had success with quarterbacks, Trestman’s appeal to both the Browns and Bears is obvious. Cleveland and Chicago’s offenses ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per game — and both offenses also ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

    5. Bruce Arians (2013), Arizona Cardinals, Win Percentage: 62%: He lasted eight seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring. Ironically Arians was thirteenth on this list of best available head coaches behind a whole bunch of guys he outperformed.

    Why: The turnaround in Indianapolis will land Bruce Arians some head coaching interviews—if he wants them. Arians is smart enough to wait for a good opportunity, and it’s also possible some NFL owners will write off his success because of the talent of Andrew Luck.

    6. Doug Marrone (2013), Buffalo Bills, Win Percentage: 47% with the Bills, 39% overall: He lasted two seasons in Buffalo, got hired in Jacksonville in 2016 where he lasted five years with a 35% win rate. Marrone didn’t get much media hype and appeared to be hired out of nowhere. We found the following on the Buffalo Bills website, but no real mentions in the press.

    “I think it is the ultimate compliment to Doug’s coaching abilities that his name is being mentioned in NFL circles,” Gross said. “None of us should be surprised by the attention given his experience and success.”

    Those were the six head coaches hired in 2013, Chip Kelly and Mike McCoy were the media darlings of the bunch, and the only one who worked out well was Arians who was an afterthought.

  • Washington Commander’s Next Head Coach Eric Bieniemy

    So the media successfully sold Adam Peters, he’s the new general manager for the Commanders. Peters comes from a successful organization and despite some fairly average drafts these past several years, his reputation and interview earned him the Commanders top spot. Peters next big hurdle will be finding a coach. The Commanders have already submitted requests to interview the following candidates:

    • Lions OC Ben Johnson
    • Lions DC Aaron Glenn
    • Rams DC Raheem Morris
    • Ravens AHC/DL coach Anthony Weaver
    • Ravens DC Mike MacDonald
    • Cowboys DC Dan Quinn
    • Texans OC Bobby Slowik

    One candidate in particular has received significant praise in the media and has been rumored to the be team’s favorite candidate, Lion’s OC Ben Johnson. I’m not sold on Johnson, I’m not down on him either, but I do believe the Commanders might already have the best candidate for the job in the building. While Johnson has been praised by the media, Bieniemy has been praised by Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Brian Mitchell, … I’m guessing you can see where this is going. I’m comfortable saying when Bieniemy gets his opportunity, he’s going to be successful, hopefully he doesn’t become the latest Commanders meme.

  • Comparing the Draft Classes of Adam Peters and Ron Rivera

    Adam Peters is the hot GM this year, everyone is talking about him, he’s the best GM on the planet. The 49ers are one of the best teams in football right now, so it’s a bit difficult to argue otherwise, but we’re going to look at the numbers anyway.

    CategoryPeters GradePeters RegradeRivera GradeRivera Regrade
    2020 (PFF) B+BBA-
    2021 (PFF)BC+A-B
    2022 (PFF) (NFL)BBC+C
    GPAB (3.1)B- (2.7)B (3.0)B- (2.9)
    Draft Analysis Rivera and Peters Initial Grades and Regrades

    Looking at the data it appears Peters had the better initial grades and Rivera had the better regrades. Depending upon how you look at it, either grade could be more relevant. I’m actually of the camp that the initial grade, biases excluded, is the more important grade, that said the initial grades won’t recognize unconventional wisdom.

  • How the Criticism of Ron Rivera Has Distanced Itself from Reality

    Ron Rivera is under fire, some of it is deserved, the critiques of how his team started the year are justified. I don’t hold him accountable for the team’s performance after the Sweat and Young trades, but he’s certainly responsible for the poor performance to that point. That said when you have a bad season as a coach the narratives around you get dumb, frustrated fans fed and led by media outlets looking for clicks and attention arrive at some profoundly crazy conclusions.

    Narrative: Ron is a terrible coach because he didn’t know what he had in Sam Howell. The logic is that he’s a terrible talent evaluator for not recognizing the genius of Sam Howell sooner. This situation is eerily similar to Bill Belichick having Tom Brady on the bench until a Drew Bledsoe injury, Anthony Lynn having Justin Herbert sitting behind Tyrod Taylor until he punctured his lung, Dick Vermeil having Kurt Warner on the bench until Trent Green was injured, Kyle Shanahan having Brock Purdy on the bench until Jimmy Garoppolo got injured. The only difference being that all of those quarterbacks had extended streaks of success, while Howell appears to have fizzled out some, so the criticism appears to be even more misguided.

    Narrative: Ron is a terrible evaluator of talent, probably one of the worst to ever pick players. Here’s a draft analysis done by PFF two years after the 2020 draft and the Commanders got an A-. Here’s a 2021 draft class regrade from PFF, their initial grade was an A-, their grade a year later was a B, not spectacular but hardly terrible. Here’s a regrade of the 2022 NFL draft after the 2022 season and the Commanders were ranked 25th, not good, but certainly not the worst draft and there’s reason to believe Jahan Dotson will flourish with a more consistent quarterback improving this grade. Finally the 2023 draft class, which it’s really too early to grade, particularly with the Commanders in full tank mode, was graded average by PFF (B), ESPN (B), and the NFL Network (C). So no, Ron isn’t the worst talent evaluator in league history, in fact he’s not even close.

  • The 1.35 Billion Dollar Publicly Funded Wizards Capitals Arena Disaster

    On Wednesday December 13th, 2023 the owner of the Washington Wizards and Washington Capitals, Ted Leonsis, joined Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin to announce a two billion dollar arena project. Perhaps the most surprising thing about the project was the total secrecy in which the deal had been made. As local residents can tell you, nothing happens in Alexandria without a healthy debate. The NIMBYs, YIMBYs, and MIMBYs always engage in a ritualistic death battle before even the smallest changes, while this might seem strange to outsiders, it’s expected in Alexandria and only added to the shock of the announcement.

    Glenn Youngkin, with a straight face, told Virginia residents that there would be no subsidies involved with the stadium, a lie that would be soon be rebuked. That he was lying was common sense, D.C. the current location of the arena was offering 500 million dollars, Ted didn’t become a billionaire turning down 100s of millions of dollars in free money. The Washington Post eventually dug up a JP Morgan analysis done for the state where they found that the Arena was indeed subsidized to the tune of 1.35 billion dollars, the largest handout ever for a project of its kind.

    Youngkin and Leonsis put together a handout package that combines the best of all handouts, maybe not for the public, but certainly for Ted. A couple 100 million in taxpayer funded improvements redirected to the arena site, then the issuance of 100s of millions in bonds, all under the guise of using money that wouldn’t be generated otherwise.

    Alexandria mayor Justin Wilson co-signed the stadium deal, which was ironic, but it’s worth noting that he’s already decided to vacate his office so he’s a lame duck mayor. The state’s Democrats appear to be willing to negotiate on the issue, Ted gets his handout and the state gets metro funding, but I suspect most of their constituency would rather just fund metro without the handouts.

  • 2024 NFL Head Coach Searches: Coaching is About Opportunity Not Media Hype (Part 1)

    The Commanders need to hire Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, because he’s the hot new coach, and he’s really smart and good at analytics. Now to be fair, reading up on Ben Johnson, he actually does sound like he might truly be smarter than the average bear. However that’s not a guarantee he will be a successful coach, otherwise we would have more head coaches like Mike McDaniels who went to Yale.

    We went back ten years to look at NFL coach hirings, how candidates were portrayed by the media during their candidacy, and how that turned out. We disqualified any coaches with less than 20 games from our list because we didn’t feel like one season was enough of a sample size to see what a coach could actually do, we will call that the Nathaniel Hackett rule.

    1. Gus Bradley (2013), Jacksonville Jaguars, Win Percentage: 22%: He lasted three seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    Why: Just look at the way the Seattle defense has been handling teams this year and it’s clear that Gus Bradley’s name will be a hot one. He’s a master at the hybrid front and at getting the right personnel on the field to match up against the offense. His X’s and O’s skill set will be heavily desired.

    2. Mike McCoy (2013), San Diego Chargers, Win Percentage: 42%: He lasted four seasons. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    McCoy was a finalist for the Dolphins head coaching vacancy last season. Hearing the recent, ringing endorsement from Manning, McCoy is primed to take over an NFL franchise. Having Manning to work with will allow McCoy to be selective, as what’s his incentive to leave the Broncos for a team who doesn’t have an established quarterback?

    3. Chip Kelly 2013, Philadelphia Eagles, Win Percentage: 55% with the Eagles, 44% overall: He lasted three seasons with the Eagles and then was hired by the 49ers where he lasted one year. Here’s what the media had to say about him prior to his hiring.

    Oregon head coach Chip Kelly tops the Christmas wish list of fans in Cleveland, Philadelphia, Kansas City and maybe even Dallas. The Pac-12 genius looks poised to make a jump to the NFL, and he’ll have no shortage of suitors if and when he’s ready.

    Part two of this post can be found here.

  • Riggo’s Rag Calls Commander’s Players Losers

    In typical fashion when a sports team is down, the vultures show up with their fake outrage and tired propaganda. Riggo’s Rag published this hit piece where they accused some players on the team of having a losing mentality, because allegedly some of the players asked Ron to take back some power given to Bienemy this offseason. The allegations are basically accusing players of not wanting to work hard and rejecting Bienemy because he’s too tough on them. While it’s easy to jump on players and accuse them of being soft, lazy, and entitled, that’s also a pretty lazy and ignorant analysis of the situation.

    The truth is Riggo’s Rag doesn’t know what’s going on at practice, and yes you can legitimately push a team too hard, to the point where it negatively impacts performance. The Dallas Cowboys and their Super Bowl winning coach have had several light practices these past couple weeks and they looked pretty good this past week. Meanwhile the Patriots and Bill Belichick have had an awful season in spite of his reputation for tough practices and no-nonsense organization. The media used to call it the Patriot’s Way and constantly glorify the results of having no fun, but as it turns out the secret to their success appears to be more closely correlated with Tom Brady than the no fun practices.

    Anyway we would suggest the guys at Riggo’s Rag worry about their own work ethic as they’re significantly trailing their rivals at hogshaven.com in site traffic. Maybe they just need to get rid of their losing mentality and work harder.